At this year’s Cellular Ag Innovation Day at Tufts University, the future of cultivated meat technology was hotly debated among experts, revealing a stark divide in opinions on the industry’s progress and the path forward. On one side of the spectrum, Dr. Dave Humbird, a chemical engineer and engineering consultant, maintains that cultivated meat technology is languishing at technology readiness level 3, suggesting that it has yet to prove its value proposition or cost viability. His 2021 techno-economic analysis, which concluded that cultivated meat faced insurmountable challenges, remains unchanged despite advancements in the field that some argue have made his analysis obsolete.
In stark contrast, Yossi Quint, founder of Ark Biotech, posits that the field is “a lot further ahead than people think.” Quint pointed out that significant strides have been made in reducing the cost of cell culture media, a critical component in the production of cultivated meat. He highlighted that several companies have already achieved media costs below $2 per liter, with one on the verge of breaking the $1 per liter mark. These cost reductions, according to Quint, could potentially bring the price of cultivated meat down to $10 per pound, making it competitive with plant-based meat alternatives when blended, and possibly reaching the price points of meat products at major retailers like Walmart.
Quint’s optimism is not unfounded. He shed light on the impressive pace of innovation within the industry, which has been rapidly driving down costs. However, despite these advancements, the industry faces a looming shakeout as startups struggle with the financial sustainability of pilot-scale production, often operating at a loss. The next 12 months are expected to be critical, with a number of companies potentially running out of money.
To truly bring down the cost of goods (COGS), Quint emphasized the need for improvements across the board: optimizing cell culture media formulations, enhancing biomass yields, refining the bioprocess, and investing in larger yet more cost-effective bioreactors. He believes that a revolution, rather than incremental change, is required to scale up production to meet the demands of the global meat market. Quint pointed to the example of Samsung Biologics in South Korea, highlighting the vast difference in production capabilities between the largest cell culture facility and a typical meat-processing plant like Tyson’s.
Ark Biotech, according to Quint, is pushing the envelope by reimagining infrastructure and focusing on scale. He argues that smaller bioreactors simply cannot deliver the unit economics needed for the industry to thrive. Instead, he advocates for extreme automation and a robust media supply chain, combined with bioreactors designed for large-scale production. Quint disclosed that Ark Biotech has developed a novel airlift bioreactor technology that promises uniform mixing and high mass transfer, which could be scaled up to hundreds of thousands of liters.
The company has already conducted successful trials with a 1,250-liter bioreactor and has ongoing collaborations worldwide, utilizing a variety of cell types. Quint also cautioned that the key to success in bio-industrial manufacturing is not to be the first to install massive infrastructure, but rather to rely on solid science and prudent execution.
Investor sentiment was also a topic of discussion at the event. Harris Komishane from Meach Cove Capital acknowledged the challenging funding environment for cellular agriculture, though recent signs indicate a slight improvement. Nonetheless, the high-interest rates and general risk aversion in the current economic climate pose significant hurdles for the industry.
As the debate continues, it’s clear that the future of cultivated meat hinges on technological breakthroughs, cost reductions, and the ability to scale up production. The USDA’s prioritization of novel foods and alternative proteins in its new science and research strategy underscores the importance of cellular agriculture in diversifying future food systems. As the industry navigates these challenges, the next year will be telling, potentially marking a turning point for cultivated meat technology.