The landscape of plant-based milk in the United States is undergoing notable shifts, as evidenced by recent data from SPINS shared with AgFunderNews. Over the 52-week period ending July 14, US retail sales of plant-based milk declined by 5.2%, with units sold dropping by 5.9%. This downturn contrasts with the more modest decline in traditional dairy milk sales, which fell 2.1% to $17.2 billion, with units down 0.8%.
Among the various plant-based milk options, almond milk remains the dominant player, yet it has experienced significant declines. Sales of almond milk fell 8.5%, with units down 8.9%, indicating a notable shift in consumer preferences. Despite maintaining its lead in the category, the declining sales suggest that the almond milk market may be reaching saturation or facing increased competition from other plant-based alternatives.
Oat milk, which has seen explosive growth in recent years, also faced a mixed bag of results. While its sales in the refrigerated segment fell by 3% year-over-year to $608.6 million, with units down 0.8%, the shelf-stable segment of oat milk showed robust growth. Sales in this smaller segment rose by 14.2% to $81.3 million, with units up 11.5%. This divergence highlights the growing consumer interest in shelf-stable options, which offer convenience and longer shelf life.
Soy milk, once a powerhouse in the plant-based milk market, appears to have plateaued. Sales stabilized at around $212 million, with units down 3.9%. This stagnation reflects the significant market share soy milk has lost to almond and oat milk over the past decade. However, the data shows a slight 0.2% increase in dollar sales, suggesting that soy milk still retains a loyal customer base.
Coconut milk emerged as the standout performer in the plant-based milk category. Dollar sales surged by 12.6% to $137 million, with units up 13.9%. Although starting from a smaller base, the impressive growth of coconut milk indicates a rising consumer preference for this tropical alternative, perhaps driven by its unique flavor profile and perceived health benefits.
The broader context of these trends is essential for understanding the evolving dynamics of the milk market. According to data from SPINS, plant-based milk now accounts for almost 15% of all dollar sales of total milk in US retail. Additionally, the Good Food Institute (GFI) reports that 44% of US households purchased plant-based milk in 2023, and 25% of these households also purchased plant-based meat and seafood. This crossover suggests a growing segment of consumers committed to plant-based diets.
Interestingly, the foodservice channel paints a more optimistic picture for plant-based milk. In 2023, sales in this sector surged by 21% to $222 million, capturing a 12% share of the total milk market in broadline distributor sales. Volumes also rose by 18%, indicating strong demand in cafes, restaurants, and other foodservice outlets. Over the past five years, dollar sales of plant-based milk in foodservice grew by 81%, with volumes up 55%, compared to 34% growth in dollar sales and 8% in volumes for conventional milk.
The data underscores a significant shift in consumer behavior and market dynamics. Households with children are particularly inclined to spend more on plant-based milk, reflecting a broader trend towards health-conscious and environmentally friendly food choices. As the plant-based milk market continues to evolve, these insights will be crucial for industry stakeholders aiming to capture and sustain consumer interest in this competitive landscape.