In the heart of Nepal, a 33-year study has peeled back the layers of maize productivity, revealing a complex interplay between climate, farming practices, and the energy sector. The study, led by O. Poudel, delves into the short-term and long-term effects of climatic and non-climatic factors on maize yield, offering insights that could reshape agricultural strategies and energy policies.
The study, published in the Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management, utilized an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze data from 1990 to 2022. The findings paint a nuanced picture of how temperature, rainfall, pesticide use, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions influence maize productivity. “Temperature, surprisingly, has an insignificant long-run influence on maize yield,” Poudel notes. This revelation challenges conventional wisdom, suggesting that other factors may play a more critical role in determining crop success.
Rainfall, for instance, shows a significant negative effect in the short term, with a coefficient of -0.861224 (p = 0.0424). However, over the long run, its impact becomes positive, though insignificant (1.963022, p = 0.1792). This dynamic highlights the importance of sustainable water management practices in agriculture. “Rainfall patterns are changing, and farmers need to adapt their strategies to mitigate short-term losses and capitalize on long-term benefits,” Poudel explains.
Pesticide use emerges as a significant driver of maize yield, both in the short run (2.093082, p = 0.0095) and the long run (14.35734, p = 0.0000). While this finding underscores the immediate benefits of pesticide use, it also raises questions about the long-term sustainability of such practices. The study suggests a need for balanced pesticide use to maintain productivity without compromising environmental health.
CO2 emissions, both per capita and agricultural, present a mixed bag. Per capita CO2 emissions positively affect maize yield in the long run (18754.80, p = 0.0012), while agricultural CO2 emissions exhibit a significant negative impact (-22074.70, p = 0.0001). This dichotomy underscores the complex relationship between energy use, agriculture, and climate change.
The Granger causality tests reveal that rainfall, temperature, and CO2 emissions Granger-cause maize yield, with a feedback effect from agricultural emissions and productivity. This bidirectional relationship underscores the need for integrated policies that address both climate change and agricultural input use. “Sustainable farming practices are not just about yield; they’re about managing the delicate balance between productivity and environmental impact,” Poudel emphasizes.
The study’s findings have significant implications for the energy sector. As agriculture is a major contributor to CO2 emissions, understanding its impact on crop productivity can inform energy policies aimed at reducing emissions. The study suggests that targeted interventions in pesticide use and water management could enhance agricultural productivity while minimizing environmental impact.
The study also highlights the need for continuous research and adaptive strategies in agriculture. As climate patterns evolve, so too must the methods used to predict and mitigate their effects on crop yields. The insights from this study could guide future developments in sustainable agriculture, energy policies, and climate change mitigation strategies.
Poudel’s research, published in the ‘Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management’, serves as a call to action for policymakers, farmers, and researchers alike. By understanding the multifaceted influences on maize yield, we can work towards a more sustainable and resilient agricultural future.