In the heart of Nigeria, a silent battle is unfolding between urban expansion and agricultural sustainability. Dr. Samuel Dekolo, from the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at the Lagos State University of Science and Technology, has been at the forefront of this battle, studying the drivers of urban sprawl and its impacts on ecosystem services in the peri-urban areas of Lagos. His recent study, published in ‘Frontiers in Sustainable Cities’ (which translates to ‘Frontiers in Sustainable Cities’), sheds light on the complex interplay between urbanization and agricultural lands, offering insights that could reshape urban planning and food security strategies across Africa.
Lagos, a megacity teeming with life and commerce, is a microcosm of Africa’s urbanization challenge. By 2030, more than half of Africa’s population will live in urban areas, according to projections. This rapid urbanization is not just a demographic shift; it’s a spatial one, with urban sprawl encroaching on valuable agricultural lands. Dekolo’s research focuses on the Ikorodu municipality, where built-up areas have increased by a staggering 127% over 32 years. This uncontrolled expansion has led to fragmented development in statutory agricultural zones, posing significant threats to food security and rural-urban linkages.
Dekolo’s interdisciplinary approach combines remote sensing, land change analysis, field surveys, and structural equation modeling to uncover the proximate factors driving this urban sprawl. His findings reveal that a lack of policy awareness and weak development control are major underlying drivers, explaining 37% of peri-urban expansion. “The lack of policy awareness and weak development control are significant drivers of urban sprawl in peri-urban areas,” Dekolo explains. “This has led to a decline in per capita arable lands, indicating risks to regional food self-sufficiency.”
The implications of this research extend beyond Lagos, offering a roadmap for other rapidly growing African cities. Dekolo advocates for a strategic land management approach that leverages rural-urban linkages to safeguard food provisioning services. He also emphasizes the need for spatial planning that incorporates agroecological perspectives and collaborative governance of urban and rural lands. “A strategic land management approach is needed to leverage rural–urban linkages that safeguard food provisioning services and achieve resilient African megacities,” Dekolo asserts.
For the energy sector, the implications are profound. As urban sprawl encroaches on agricultural lands, it disrupts the delicate balance of ecosystem services, including food provisioning and carbon sequestration. This disruption could lead to increased energy demands for food production and transportation, as well as potential disruptions in energy supply chains. Dekolo’s research underscores the need for integrated planning that considers the energy-water-food nexus, ensuring sustainable development and resilience in the face of rapid urbanization.
The study’s findings could shape future developments in urban planning, agriculture, and energy sectors. By highlighting the need for policy awareness and strong development control, Dekolo’s research provides a blueprint for sustainable urbanization. It calls for a shift in mindset, from viewing urbanization as a threat to agricultural lands to seeing it as an opportunity for integrated, sustainable development. This shift could lead to the creation of resilient African megacities that balance urban growth with agricultural sustainability, ensuring food security and energy resilience for future generations.