US agriculture is at a critical juncture, facing its first productivity slowdown in decades due to the dual challenges of climate change and stagnating investment in research and development (R&D). A recent study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences sheds light on the urgent need for increased public sector investment to maintain agricultural productivity through 2050.
The study, led by Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, associate professor at Cornell University, models the impact of climate change on US agriculture and the potential benefits of increased R&D investment. The findings are stark: to offset the slowdown caused by climate change, the US needs to significantly ramp up its investment in agricultural research. The researchers estimate that a 5% to 8% annual growth in research investment is required, or alternatively, an additional $2.2 billion to $3.8 billion per year in fixed investment.
The urgency of this situation is underscored by the time it takes for publicly funded R&D to impact productivity. Unlike private sector innovations, which can be rapidly developed and deployed, agricultural research often requires long-term, localized efforts. This means that any delay in increased investment will only exacerbate the productivity slowdown and increase the country’s reliance on imports.
The study highlights that the current public sector investment in R&D, approximately $5 billion, has grown at a mere 0.5% per year since 1970, stagnating in recent decades. This is a far cry from the level of investment needed to counteract the effects of climate change. Ortiz-Bobea advocates for a more incremental investment scenario, which would see annual funding increase by 5% to 8%, totaling $208 billion to $434 billion by 2050.
The implications of this investment are significant. Without it, the US could face declining agricultural productivity, increased government bailouts, and greater environmental degradation as farmers resort to more land and chemical use to boost production. Moreover, the study emphasizes the unique role of publicly funded R&D, which often targets technologies with high social returns that the private sector may overlook.
The researchers’ estimates are not just about maintaining productivity but also about ensuring the sustainability and competitiveness of US agriculture. The study serves as a call to action, highlighting the need for policymakers to prioritize agricultural R&D investment. The alternative, Ortiz-Bobea warns, is a future where US agriculture is less productive, more reliant on other countries, and more environmentally damaging. The path forward is clear: increased investment in R&D is not just an option but a necessity for the future of US agriculture.
