The global carbon budget for 2023 has been released, and the numbers are in. The latest findings, published in the journal Earth System Science Data, reveal a complex interplay between human activities and the Earth’s natural systems. The study, led by Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter, provides a comprehensive assessment of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere. This research is crucial for understanding the global carbon cycle, developing climate policies, and projecting future climate change.
Fossil CO2 emissions (E_FOS) for 2023 increased by 1.3% compared to 2022, reaching 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC/yr. This includes emissions from energy statistics and cement production data. Emissions from land-use change (E_LUC) were estimated at 1.0 ± 0.7 GtC/yr. The total anthropogenic CO2 emission, including the cement carbonation sink, amounted to 11.1 ± 0.9 GtC/yr, or 40.6 ± 3.2 GtCO2/yr. The atmospheric CO2 concentration growth rate (G_ATM) for 2023 was 5.9 ± 0.2 GtC/yr, with the global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaging 419.31 ± 0.1 ppm.
The ocean and land sinks, which absorb CO2, were estimated at 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC/yr and 2.3 ± 1.0 GtC/yr, respectively. The carbon budget imbalance (B_IM) was near zero, at -0.02 GtC/yr, indicating a near-perfect balance between sources and sinks. However, discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC/yr persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes.
“These findings underscore the urgent need for accurate and comprehensive data on carbon emissions and sinks,” said Friedlingstein. “The persistence of large uncertainties in land-use change emissions and discrepancies in the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics highlight the challenges we face in understanding and mitigating climate change.”
The preliminary data for 2024 suggests an increase in fossil CO2 emissions relative to 2023 of +0.8% (-0.2% to 1.7%) globally. The atmospheric CO2 concentration is projected to increase by 2.87 ppm, reaching 422.45 ppm, which is 52% above the pre-industrial level of around 278 ppm in 1750.
The study also highlights the evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle, with ongoing improvements in methods and datasets. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2024 (Friedlingstein et al., 2024). This research is a living-data update, reflecting the dynamic nature of climate science and the need for continuous monitoring and assessment.
For the energy sector, these findings have significant commercial implications. The increasing fossil CO2 emissions underscore the need for investment in renewable energy sources and carbon capture technologies. The discrepancies in the carbon budget highlight the importance of accurate data for policy-making and corporate sustainability strategies. As the world strives to achieve net-zero emissions, this research provides a critical foundation for understanding the global carbon cycle and guiding future developments in climate policy and technology.