US agriculture is at a critical juncture, facing its first productivity slowdown in decades due to the dual challenges of climate change and stagnating investment in research and development (R&D). A recent study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences sheds light on the urgent need for increased public sector investment to maintain agricultural productivity through 2050.
The study, led by Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, associate professor at Cornell University, models the impacts of climate change on US agriculture and the potential benefits of publicly funded R&D. The findings are stark: to counteract the productivity slowdown caused by climate change, the US needs to significantly ramp up its investment in agricultural research. The researchers estimate that a 5% to 8% annual growth in research investment is required, or alternatively, an additional $2.2 billion to $3.8 billion per year.
The urgency of this situation is underscored by the time it takes for publicly funded R&D to impact productivity. Unlike private sector innovations, which can be rapidly developed and marketed, agricultural research often needs to be conducted in close proximity to the farmers who will use it, and then adopted through a lengthy process. This means that delaying investment will only prolong the period of reduced productivity.
The study highlights that the current public sector investment in R&D is approximately $5 billion, with growth stagnating since 2000. Ortiz-Bobea advocates for a more incremental investment scenario, which would see funding increase by 5% to 8% each year, totaling $208 billion to $434 billion by 2050. This approach, while significant, is not unprecedented; similar levels of investment were made following the two world wars.
The implications of failing to invest in agricultural R&D are severe. Declining productivity could lead to increased government bailouts, greater reliance on foreign imports, and more environmental degradation as farmers turn to more land and chemicals to boost production. Moreover, publicly funded R&D differs from private R&D in that it often comes with lower costs for growers and targets technologies with broader social benefits.
The study underscores the need for a strategic decision about the future of the US agricultural sector. With climate change already impacting productivity, the time to act is now. The researchers emphasize that while the estimated investment would maintain productivity, even more is needed to grow the sector. The will to invest, they argue, is the key factor.
