In the heart of Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, two districts are undergoing rapid transformation, driven by a surge in tourism. Buner and Shangla, home to popular tourist spots like Shangla Top and Daggar, are experiencing significant changes in land use, land cover, and land surface temperatures. A recent study published in the journal Scientific Reports, which translates to “Scientific Reports” in English, sheds light on these dynamics and their implications for the region’s future.
The research, led by Waheed Ullah from the Department of Environmental Sciences at COMSATS University Islamabad, Abbottabad Campus, utilized advanced remote sensing data and predictive modeling to analyze changes from 1990 to 2020 and project future trends until 2050. The findings reveal a stark reality: tourism is reshaping the landscape and climate of these districts at an alarming rate.
Using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Cellular Automata Markov (CA-Markov) models, Ullah and his team found that built-up areas in both districts have increased significantly. “The expansion of built-up areas is directly linked to the growth of tourism infrastructure,” Ullah explains. “This includes hotels, roads, and other facilities that cater to the increasing number of visitors.”
The study highlights that the mean land surface temperature (LST) is highest in built-up areas, a phenomenon known as the urban heat island effect. This effect occurs when urban areas become significantly warmer than their rural surroundings due to human activities. The simulation results predict that by 2035, areas with LST above 31°C will cover 76% of Shangla and 88% of Buner. By 2050, these figures are expected to rise even further.
For the energy sector, these changes present both challenges and opportunities. The increased demand for energy to support tourism infrastructure could strain existing resources. However, it also opens avenues for investment in renewable energy solutions, such as solar and wind power, which could mitigate the environmental impact and provide sustainable energy sources.
The analysis of specific tourist spots reveals even more dramatic changes. Shangla Top, for instance, has seen the highest increase in built-up areas, while Daggar has experienced the highest rise in LST. Future projections indicate that Daggar will continue to see significant LULC changes and temperature increases, with LST expected to reach 31°C by 2050.
Ullah emphasizes the importance of these findings for policymakers and urban planners. “Understanding these dynamics is crucial for developing long-term tourism policies that balance economic growth with environmental sustainability,” he says. “We need to implement strategies that minimize the urban heat island effect and promote sustainable land use practices.”
The study’s implications extend beyond Pakistan, offering valuable insights for other regions experiencing similar tourism-driven transformations. As the global tourism industry continues to grow, so too will the need for sustainable practices that protect the environment while supporting economic development.
This research underscores the urgent need for integrated planning and policy-making that considers the multifaceted impacts of tourism. By leveraging advanced modeling techniques and remote sensing data, stakeholders can make informed decisions that shape a more sustainable future for Buner, Shangla, and beyond. As the findings from Scientific Reports make clear, the time to act is now.