In the heart of the Karakoram Range, a silent yet formidable threat is growing. Glacial lakes, fed by melting glaciers, are swelling and becoming increasingly unstable, posing a significant risk to the communities and infrastructure of Gilgit-Baltistan’s Ghizer District. This region, known for its rugged beauty, is now at the forefront of a climate change-driven phenomenon that could reshape the landscape and disrupt vital energy projects.
Yusra Mazhar, a researcher from the School of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the Institute of Geographical Information Systems, National University of Sciences and Technology in Islamabad, has been studying this alarming trend. Her recent study, published in the IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, sheds light on the escalating danger of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the area.
GLOFs occur when the natural dams containing glacial lakes fail, releasing vast amounts of water downstream. In Ghizer District, nearly 24 such events have been recorded in the past 200 years, with the frequency and intensity of these incidents on the rise. “The increasing number of glacial lakes and their expansion is a clear indicator of the growing risk,” Mazhar explains. “These lakes are not just growing in size but also in number, which is a worrying trend.”
Using satellite imagery from Landsat and Sentinel-2, Mazhar and her team mapped 617 glacial lakes covering approximately 31.67 square kilometers in 2023. Since 2000, around 88 new lakes have appeared, highlighting the accelerating pace of change. The team employed machine learning techniques to classify these lakes and assess their susceptibility to outbursts.
The implications for the energy sector are profound. Ghizer District is home to several hydropower projects, which are crucial for Pakistan’s energy security. A sudden GLOF could devastate these installations, leading to significant economic losses and energy shortages. “The potential impact on infrastructure and agriculture is immense,” Mazhar warns. “We need to be proactive in identifying high-risk areas and implementing mitigation strategies.”
The study used advanced modeling techniques to simulate potential GLOF scenarios. The results indicate that the glacial lake near Darkut village in the Yaseen Valley poses a significant threat to downstream communities. In contrast, lakes in the Gupis Valley and Punyal Valley present varying levels of risk, with the latter posing minimal threat.
This research is not just about identifying risks but also about shaping future developments. By understanding the dynamics of GLOFs, engineers and planners can design more resilient infrastructure. “Our findings can guide the development of early warning systems and emergency response plans,” Mazhar says. “This is crucial for protecting both lives and livelihoods.”
The use of satellite imagery and machine learning in this study represents a significant leap forward in monitoring and predicting GLOFs. As these technologies continue to evolve, they will play an increasingly vital role in managing the risks associated with climate change. The work published in the IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, translated to English as the IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, underscores the importance of interdisciplinary approaches in tackling complex environmental challenges.
For the energy sector, this means investing in robust monitoring systems and incorporating climate resilience into project design. It also means fostering collaboration between scientists, engineers, and policymakers to develop comprehensive strategies for mitigating the impacts of GLOFs. As the threat of glacial lake outburst floods grows, so too must our resolve to protect the communities and infrastructure that depend on the fragile ecosystems of the Karakoram Range.