In the heart of America’s breadbasket, a silent shift is underway, one that could reshape the energy landscape and the way we think about oilseed crops. As climate change tightens its grip, the Northern Great Plains (NGP) is bracing for a future where the environmental suitability for crops like canola may dwindle, according to a recent study published in ‘Frontiers in Agronomy’ (Frontiers in Agronomy is translated from the Latin, meaning ‘Frontiers in Farming’). The research, led by Gabriela Quinlan, delves into the viability of canola and a lesser-known contender, camelina, under future climate scenarios, with potentially significant implications for the energy sector.
The NGP, a vast expanse stretching from the Dakotas to Texas, has long been a stronghold for canola production. However, climate change is poised to disrupt this status quo, with projections indicating a decrease in cropland suitability. This is where camelina, a hardy and resilient oilseed, steps into the spotlight. “Camelina has several agronomic attributes that make it a promising candidate for climate-smart agriculture,” Quinlan explains. “It’s drought-tolerant, requires low inputs, and is cold-hardy, traits that could prove invaluable in a changing climate.”
The study, which defines the current environmental niches of both crops and projects their potential distribution under two different carbon emission scenarios, paints a stark picture. While both crops are primarily grown in the NGP, they have distinct spatial and environmental ranges. More crucially, these ranges are expected to shift under future climate change scenarios, with canola facing a more significant decrease in environmental suitability.
For the energy sector, these findings are more than just academic. Canola, a primary source of biodiesel, has been a staple in the biofuel industry. However, as its suitability for cultivation in the NGP declines, the sector may need to look elsewhere for reliable feedstock. This is where camelina, with its robust resilience, could step in to fill the gap.
The study also underscores the nonstationary and shifting nature of crop suitability under climate change. “This isn’t just about canola and camelina,” Quinlan notes. “It’s about understanding that the environmental suitability for crops is not static. It’s shifting, and we need to be prepared to adapt.”
As the energy sector grapples with these shifts, the study suggests a few key takeaways. First, there’s a need for diversification. Relying too heavily on a single crop, like canola, could leave the sector vulnerable to climate-induced disruptions. Second, there’s an opportunity to invest in climate-smart crops like camelina, which could prove more resilient in the face of a changing climate. Lastly, there’s a call for continued research and monitoring, to stay ahead of the curve and anticipate future shifts.
The study, published in ‘Frontiers in Agronomy’, is a wake-up call for the energy sector. It’s a reminder that climate change is not a distant threat, but a present reality that’s already reshaping our agricultural landscapes. And it’s a call to action, urging the sector to adapt, innovate, and invest in a future that’s sustainable, resilient, and climate-smart. As Quinlan puts it, “The future of oilseeds is not set in stone. It’s in our hands to shape it, to adapt, and to thrive in a changing climate.”