In a groundbreaking study published in the journal *Resources, Environment and Sustainability* (translated from Chinese as *自然资源学报*), researchers have shed light on the critical role of livestock rearing in mitigating non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from global crop-livestock systems. Led by Li Zheng from the Agricultural Clear Watershed Group at the Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), the research offers a comprehensive analysis of emission trends and potential mitigation strategies.
The study, which spans data from 138 countries over six decades (1961–2020), reveals a stark increase in non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from crop-livestock systems, primarily due to enteric fermentation and manure-related emissions. These emissions surged by 61.9% from 2696.5 to 4365.0 Mt CO2-eq. yr−1 during this period. The research identifies India, Brazil, China, and the United States as the top emitters, collectively accounting for about 40% of total emissions in 2020.
One of the most compelling findings is the decoupling of emissions from economic development in developed countries. “Significant decoupling occurred in developed countries like the United States around 1985 at approximately $10,000 per-capita GDP,” explains Li Zheng. “In developing countries like China, this decoupling became evident around 1990 at approximately $3000 per-capita GDP.” This decoupling indicates that economic growth can potentially be achieved without a proportional increase in greenhouse gas emissions, offering a glimmer of hope for sustainable development.
The study employs the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) to decompose the drivers of emissions and explores six scenarios to assess mitigation potential. Ambitious scenarios, such as implementing best management practices with a manure substitution ratio of 50% (BMPs-50%), could reduce global emissions by 3.2–6.7 Gt CO2-eq. yr−1 by 2060. Major contributions to these reductions are expected from India, Brazil, China, and the USA, highlighting the global impact of targeted mitigation efforts.
The research underscores the importance of strategic shifts toward monogastric livestock, manure recycling, and dietary transitions as critical pathways to achieving carbon neutrality. These findings have significant implications for the energy sector, particularly in terms of reducing emissions from agricultural activities and aligning food security with climate goals.
As the world grapples with the challenges of climate change, this study provides a roadmap for mitigating non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from crop-livestock systems. The insights offered by Li Zheng and his team could shape future developments in agricultural practices, policy-making, and technological innovations aimed at achieving a sustainable and carbon-neutral future.
For professionals in the energy sector, the study highlights the potential for collaboration and innovation in reducing emissions from agricultural sources. By adopting the recommended strategies, the energy sector can play a pivotal role in mitigating climate change and ensuring a sustainable future for all.