In the heart of China’s breadbasket, the North China Plain (NCP), a decade-long study has uncovered critical insights into wheat productivity under climate change, offering a roadmap for farmers and agritech innovators to enhance yields and secure food production. Led by Baohua Liu from China Agricultural University and the Agricultural Information Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, the research, published in the *Journal of Integrative Agriculture* (translated as *Journal of Comprehensive Agriculture*), leverages the CERES-Wheat model and meticulous field observations to optimize management strategies.
The study reveals that wheat yield potential in the NCP averages 10.8 tons per hectare, but this figure is under threat from climatic shifts. “The low growing degree days in the pre-winter growing season and solar radiation throughout the growth season are the most critical climatic factors limiting wheat yield potential,” explains Liu. Without considering the elevated CO2 concentration, wheat yields are projected to decline by 1.8% to 5.1% during 2040–2059 under different climate scenarios. However, the positive influence of CO2 fertilization could offset these negative impacts, potentially enhancing wheat yield potential by 7.5% to 9.8% compared to the baseline.
To capitalize on these findings, the researchers recommend precise management strategies. “Selecting an appropriate planting date and density that align with light and temperature conditions, optimizing the timing and rate of water application, and refining fertilizer use are crucial for closing the wheat yield gap,” Liu emphasizes. This involves planting around October 5th, maintaining a planting density of 400 plants per square meter, applying water in three instances totaling 270 mm, and adopting in-season root zone nitrogen management for fertilizer use.
The implications for the agricultural sector are profound. By adopting these tailored management practices, farmers can enhance wheat productivity, ensuring food security amidst climate variability. For the agritech industry, this research underscores the importance of integrating climate–crop–soil interconnections into technological solutions. Innovations in precision agriculture, such as smart irrigation systems and AI-driven fertilizer management, could play a pivotal role in implementing these strategies.
As climate change continues to reshape agricultural landscapes, this study provides a critical toolkit for stakeholders to navigate the challenges ahead. By embracing these insights, the agricultural community can not only mitigate the impacts of climate change but also unlock new opportunities for sustainable and productive farming. The research published in the *Journal of Integrative Agriculture* serves as a beacon, guiding the way toward a more resilient and prosperous future for wheat production in the North China Plain and beyond.