Ethiopia is quietly reshaping its food systems, moving from chronic dependency toward a more self-reliant future—one built on imported agricultural technology and large-scale modernisation. For decades, the country has grappled with its classification as a “low-income food-deficit nation,” heavily reliant on food imports and aid to feed its growing population. But since 2019, a deliberate shift has taken place: Ethiopia is now leveraging agri-tech imports, policy reforms, and international partnerships to reduce its vulnerability to external shocks while boosting domestic production.
The strategy appears to be working. By 2025, food imports as a share of total merchandise imports have dropped to 13.8%, down from a peak of 23.8% in 2022—a decline attributed to aggressive import substitution policies, expanded irrigation, and the adoption of high-yield seed varieties. Wheat, once a major import burden, is now a success story, with Ethiopia nearing self-sufficiency through mechanised farming and climate-smart practices. The government’s push for advanced horticulture, post-harvest management, and market system reforms has further strengthened its case as a model for food systems transformation in Africa.
Yet this progress comes with risks. Ethiopia’s growing reliance on imported agricultural inputs—fertilisers from Morocco and China, hybrid seeds from global partnerships, and machinery from Germany—raises concerns about long-term dependency. While these technologies have undeniably boosted yields, they also expose the country to supply chain disruptions, price volatility, and geopolitical tensions. The abolition of duty-free import schemes and new tariffs on wheat flour signal a push for domestic production, but they also complicate access to critical inputs. Meanwhile, climate change remains an ever-present threat, with droughts and erratic rainfall testing even the most resilient farming systems.
The government’s approach is multi-pronged, involving federal ministries, regional agencies, and international donors in a “clustered and multi-stakeholder” strategy. The selection of Addis Ababa as the host for the 2025 UN Food Systems Summit Stocktake underscores Ethiopia’s perceived success in blending technology adoption with policy innovation. But whether this momentum can be sustained depends on balancing two competing forces: the need for rapid modernisation and the risk of over-reliance on external inputs.
Looking ahead to 2030, the best-case scenario sees Ethiopia further reducing its import dependency through sustained agri-tech adoption, diversified trade partnerships, and climate-resilient farming. Digital agriculture—using big data, IoT, and precision tools—could help smallholder farmers overcome traditional constraints, while strategic alliances with China, the EU, and regional neighbours might shield the country from supply chain shocks. Yet the worst-case scenario looms large: if climate shocks intensify, donor fatigue sets in, or geopolitical tensions disrupt trade, Ethiopia could face shrinking food production, rising import costs, and deepened vulnerability.
For now, the country’s trajectory offers a compelling case study in how technology-driven transformation can reshape food security. But the path forward will require more than just imported solutions—it will demand long-term investment in local adaptation, infrastructure, and resilience to ensure that progress isn’t undone by the very dependencies it seeks to overcome.