In the heart of East Africa, where livestock production is the lifeblood of rural economies, a new study sheds light on the complex interplay between climate variability, political stability, and livestock productivity. Published in *Environmental Research Communications* (translated as *Communications in Environmental Research*), this research, led by Abdikadir Ahmed Mohamed of the Faculty of Economics and Management at Jamhuriya University of Science and Technology in Mogadishu, Somalia, offers critical insights for policymakers, agricultural stakeholders, and investors alike.
The East African Community (EAC) relies heavily on livestock for food security, economic stability, and rural livelihoods. However, the sector faces persistent challenges from climatic variability, economic disparities, demographic pressures, and governance issues. Mohamed’s study, which analyzes panel data from 1996 to 2021 across EAC countries, reveals that temperature has a significant negative impact on livestock productivity in the long run. This finding underscores the detrimental effects of heat stress and environmental degradation on livestock, a concern that resonates deeply with farmers and agricultural businesses in the region.
“Temperature has a significant negative impact on livestock productivity in the long run,” Mohamed explains. “This highlights the detrimental effects of heat stress and environmental degradation. Our findings emphasize the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies and sustainable land management practices.”
The study also highlights the positive role of population density and land use patterns for agriculture, emphasizing the importance of infrastructure, market access, and sustainable land management. Political stability emerges as a crucial determinant, reinforcing the role of governance in fostering agricultural resilience. “Political stability is a key factor in enhancing livestock productivity,” Mohamed notes. “It creates an environment conducive to investment and innovation, which are essential for the sector’s growth.”
In contrast, the study found that rainfall, CO2 emissions, and GDP per capita show statistically insignificant long-run effects on livestock productivity. In the short run, most variables display limited significance, indicating that livestock systems respond gradually to shocks. This gradual responsiveness suggests that structural changes and long-term planning are essential for improving livestock productivity.
The findings have significant implications for policymakers and investors. Prioritizing climate adaptation, irrigation infrastructure, targeted agricultural policies, and political stability can enhance livestock productivity and resilience. Enhancing regional cooperation is also crucial for sustainable livestock production in the EAC.
As the region grapples with the impacts of climate change and political instability, this research provides a roadmap for developing effective interventions and resilience strategies. By understanding the long-run and short-run relationships between livestock production and key explanatory variables, stakeholders can make informed decisions that foster sustainable growth and development in the livestock sector.
In the words of Mohamed, “Our study underscores the need for a holistic approach to livestock production that considers climatic, economic, and political factors. By addressing these challenges, we can build a more resilient and productive livestock sector in the EAC.”
As the world continues to grapple with the impacts of climate change and political instability, this research offers valuable insights for other regions facing similar challenges. By prioritizing climate adaptation, sustainable land management, and political stability, stakeholders can build a more resilient and productive livestock sector, ensuring food security and economic stability for future generations.