Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is set to finalise its fiscal 2026 draft budget request, with a focus on three core priorities: increasing rice production to meet demand, promoting the circular use of forest resources, and enhancing the sustainability of fisheries. But it was rice—specifically, how to grow more of it while stabilising prices—that dominated Minister Shinjirō Koizumi’s remarks during an August 29 press conference.
The draft budget includes a JPY4 billion (US$27 million) allocation to expand rice production, targeting both domestic consumption and export markets. Koizumi highlighted new initiatives such as dry direct seeding in paddies—a method he observed firsthand in Fukushima—as well as the promotion of rice flour and other value-added products. Yet the challenge extends beyond simply growing more rice. Japan’s recent “Reiwa Rice Crisis,” marked by shortages and price volatility, has exposed gaps in agricultural data accuracy, prompting a JPY800 million (US$5.43 million) investment in digital tools to improve data collection and utilisation.
Climate change is adding another layer of complexity. Warmer temperatures in regions like Fukushima are driving demand for heat-tolerant rice varieties, and Koizumi confirmed that the government would support farmers in transitioning to these strains. But the deeper issue, as he noted, is Japan’s shrinking rural workforce. A farmer in his 40s—considered young in his community—told Koizumi that managing dozens of small, fragmented plots is unsustainable. The solution, Koizumi suggested, lies in land consolidation: merging small paddies into larger, more efficient blocks with better infrastructure. To that end, the ministry is requesting a budget roughly four times larger for farmland consolidation and management.
Price stability is another pressing concern. While Koizumi acknowledged that releasing stockpiled rice could provide short-term relief from high prices, he stressed the need for long-term solutions. “Farmers don’t want a situation where prices spike temporarily and then fall again,” he said. “What they want is a stable, long-term outlook.” His comments come as Japan imported 26,000 tonnes of rice in a single month—90% of it from the U.S., a 2,000-fold increase. Though domestic rice still dominates supermarket shelves, foreign rice is quietly entering the food service sector, embedding itself in dishes where consumers may not even notice the shift. Once lost, Koizumi warned, those market shares are difficult to reclaim.
The broader goal, he explained, is a balanced system where prices rise gradually—by 2% to 3%—rather than doubling or tripling in a year. Such stability would secure farmers’ incomes while ensuring consumers can buy rice without financial strain. The question now is whether the proposed budget, with its emphasis on production, data, and land reform, can deliver that equilibrium. For Japan’s aging farmers and its rice-dependent culture, the stakes couldn’t be higher.