The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has revised its world cereal production forecast for the 2025-26 season, projecting a record output of 2.961 billion tonnes. This revision, up 1.2% from July and 3.5% from last year, is driven by improved prospects for coarse grain crops, particularly maize (corn). The forecast for global wheat output, while marginally down from July, remains higher year on year, and world rice production is expected to expand by 1%, reaching a record high.
The marked upward revision in coarse grains production, primarily due to increased maize output in the United States, Brazil, and Mexico, has significant implications for agritech and investors. The record-high yields and updated area estimates in the United States, coupled with higher yields in Brazil and larger planted areas in Mexico, indicate a robust growth trajectory for maize production. This trend could spur investments in precision agriculture technologies, such as drones, sensors, and data analytics, which can help optimize crop yields and manage larger planted areas efficiently.
The FAO’s forecast for global wheat output, while slightly revised downward due to adverse weather conditions in China and smaller-than-expected acreage in Argentina, still shows a year-on-year increase. This suggests that despite challenges, there is potential for growth in wheat production, particularly in regions like the European Union, where weather-improved prospects for yields have led to upward adjustments. Investors may consider exploring technologies that enhance wheat resilience to adverse weather conditions and improve yield predictions.
The expansion in world rice production, driven by increases in key producing countries like Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia, presents opportunities for agritech innovations in rice cultivation. Technologies that improve water management, pest control, and yield optimization could be particularly valuable in these regions.
The FAO’s revised forecast for global cereal consumption, up 21.7 million tonnes from July, indicates a growing demand for cereals. This trend is likely to drive investments in technologies that enhance cereal processing, storage, and distribution. The increased use of maize for animal feed in major producers like Brazil and the United States, along with rising feed use of barley in Saudi Arabia and wheat in the European Union and Thailand, suggests a growing market for feed-related agritech solutions.
The forecast for world cereal stocks at the end of the 2025-26 season has been raised, with global reserves expected to reach a record high. This comfortable supply outlook could encourage investments in storage technologies and logistics solutions to manage the increased stock levels efficiently.
The global cereal stocks-to-use ratio is expected to reach 30.6%, confirming a comfortable supply outlook. This could lead to increased investments in technologies that improve supply chain management and reduce post-harvest losses.
The FAO’s forecast for world trade in cereals in 2025-26 is pegged at 493.4 million tonnes, up 6.5 million tonnes from the July forecast. This increase in trade volume presents opportunities for agritech innovations in trade and logistics, such as blockchain technologies for traceability and digital platforms for market access.
In conclusion, the FAO’s revised forecasts for world cereal production, consumption, and trade highlight several opportunities for agritech innovations and investments. From precision agriculture and weather-resilient crops to improved storage and logistics solutions, the growing demand and supply of cereals create a fertile ground for technological advancements in the agricultural sector. Investors should consider these trends when evaluating potential opportunities in the agritech space.