In the heart of the United Arab Emirates, where the sun blazes and water is a precious commodity, scientists are turning to advanced technology to safeguard the nation’s food security. A recent study, led by Achraf Mamassi from the International Center for Biosaline Agriculture (ICBA) in Dubai and Université Paris-Saclay in France, has shed light on how climate change and irrigation management are shaping the resilience of crops in the UAE’s arid agriculture. The research, published in the journal ‘Agricultural Water Management’ (translated as ‘Water Management in Agriculture’), offers a compelling narrative that could resonate deeply with professionals in the energy sector, given the intertwined nature of water, energy, and food security.
The study employed the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model, a cutting-edge tool that simulates crop eco-physiological responses to various environmental conditions. Mamassi and his team used this model to evaluate the performances of three key crops—wheat, maize, and potato—under integrated climate change projections and irrigation management strategies. The findings are both enlightening and sobering.
“Rising temperatures and water stress under medium to high emission scenarios emerged as critical abiotic stressors,” Mamassi explained. The simulations revealed that under these conditions, wheat yields could be reduced by up to 50%, and maize yields by up to 75%. Even more alarming, premature crop failure was observed for wheat and potato, particularly in the last two decades of the century.
However, the study also highlighted the potential of leveraging the APSIM model for irrigation recommendations. “The model proved effective in ensuring maize efficient water-use and supporting appropriate potato scheduling across high-emissions scenarios,” Mamassi noted. This is a significant finding, as it underscores the importance of investing in stress-tolerant crops and adapted varieties, alongside implementing UAE-specific soil-water management and climate-smart practices.
The implications of this research extend beyond the borders of the UAE. As climate change continues to intensify, the lessons learned from this study could be invaluable for other arid regions grappling with similar challenges. Moreover, the integration of advanced crop modeling tools like APSIM into agricultural practices could revolutionize the way we approach food security in the face of a changing climate.
For the energy sector, the study serves as a reminder of the interconnectedness of water, energy, and food. As the demand for water increases to sustain agriculture, so too does the demand for energy to pump, treat, and distribute that water. This creates a vicious cycle that could strain resources and infrastructure. However, by adopting climate-smart practices and investing in stress-tolerant crops, we can help break this cycle and pave the way for a more sustainable future.
In the words of Mamassi, “This study is a call to action. It’s a reminder that we need to act now to safeguard our food security in the face of a changing climate.” And as professionals in the energy sector, we have a crucial role to play in this endeavor. By working together, we can help build a more resilient and sustainable future for all.