In the heart of China’s Zhejiang Province, a critical challenge for water resource management has been met with a scientific breakthrough that could reshape drought assessment and adaptation strategies. A recent study, led by Suli Pan of the Nanxun Innovation Institute at Zhejiang University of Water Resources and Electric Power, has identified the most reliable combination of reanalysis and remote sensing data for accurate drought monitoring. This research, published in the journal ‘Atmosphere’ (translated as ‘大气层’), offers a high-resolution foundation for regional drought assessment, with significant implications for the energy sector and agricultural water security.
The study evaluated nine different data combinations, pairing three precipitation products with three evapotranspiration products, to determine the most accurate method for calculating the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). This index is a crucial tool for assessing drought conditions. The findings revealed that the choice of precipitation product is the dominant factor influencing SPEI accuracy. The optimal combination identified was CMFD V2.0 precipitation and GLEAM v4.2a evapotranspiration, which provided the most reliable SPEI estimation across multiple timescales.
“Our analysis showed that the combination of CMFD V2.0 precipitation and GLEAM v4.2a evapotranspiration data offered the most consistent and accurate results,” said Pan. “This combination can be a game-changer for regional water resource management, particularly in areas like Zhejiang Province where water stress is a significant concern.”
The study’s long-term trend analysis of SPEI revealed significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in drought conditions. Temporally, a pronounced “wetter winters, drier springs” seasonal pattern emerged, posing a substantial threat to agricultural water security. Spatially, the analysis showed a distinct divergence, with central and northeastern areas experiencing wetting trends while southern and southeastern regions faced significant drying, particularly for long-term hydrological drought.
These findings have profound implications for the energy sector, particularly for hydropower generation, which relies heavily on consistent water availability. The identified trends in drought conditions can inform better water resource management strategies, ensuring more reliable and sustainable energy production.
Moreover, the study’s attribution analysis demonstrated that precipitation is the dominant driver of droughts across all timescales. This insight can guide targeted drought adaptation strategies, helping to mitigate the impacts of water stress on both agriculture and energy production.
The research not only provides a validated, high-resolution data foundation for regional drought assessment but also offers a scientific basis for developing targeted drought adaptation strategies. As climate change continues to exacerbate water stress in many regions, the methods and findings from this study could be applied more broadly, shaping future developments in drought monitoring and management.
“Our hope is that this research will contribute to more effective water resource management and drought adaptation strategies, not just in Zhejiang Province but in other regions facing similar challenges,” Pan added.
In an era of increasing water scarcity and climate variability, this study underscores the importance of accurate drought assessment and the critical role of reanalysis and remote sensing products in achieving this goal. As the energy sector grapples with the impacts of water stress, the insights from this research offer a path forward for more resilient and sustainable water resource management.