In the heart of Ethiopia, the Awash River Basin (ARB) is undergoing significant transformations, and a recent study published in *Scientific Reports* (translated to English as “Reports of Science”) is shedding light on the intricate dance between land use, population dynamics, and environmental change. Led by Gebremichael Abayneh Tilahun from the Environmental Planning Ph.D. Program at the Ethiopian Institute of Architecture, Building Construction and City Development (EiABC), Addis Ababa University, the research employs advanced geospatial techniques to unravel the complexities of this vital region.
The Awash River Basin, a lifeline for agriculture, urban development, and biodiversity, is facing unprecedented pressures. “The dynamics of land use and land cover change are becoming increasingly noticeable, and the main causes of these dynamics are globalization, rapid economic development, and population augmentation,” explains Tilahun. The study reveals that between 1990 and 2020, the basin experienced a 1.3% decrease in agricultural land, a 50% decrease in bare land, a 43% decrease in deep water bodies, a 13.7% increase in forest cover, a 191% increase in wetland areas, and a 121% increase in urban areas. These changes are not just numbers on a map; they represent a shifting landscape that has profound implications for the energy sector and beyond.
The research highlights the critical role of population growth in driving these changes. With the population expected to expand from 8.638 million to 16.8 million between 1990 and 2020, the pressure on land resources has intensified. “The primary cause of human-induced land use and land cover change, which primarily occurs in nations like Ethiopia, is rapid population increment,” notes Tilahun. The Pearson correlation analysis further underscores this relationship, showing that urban and wetland areas have favorable correlations with population growth (0.94 and 0.89, respectively), while agricultural land and forest coverage have negative correlations.
The implications for the energy sector are significant. As urban areas expand and land use patterns shift, the demand for energy resources is likely to increase. The study’s findings on land consumption rates (LCR) suggest that the annual rate has fluctuated over the decades, with a notable increase in recent years. This trend could impact the availability of land for energy projects, such as hydroelectric power plants, which rely on stable water resources. “Flooding may have resulted from changes in land use and land cover since then due to population growth and growing amounts of built-up land,” warns Tilahun. This underscores the need for sustainable land management practices to mitigate the risks of flooding and ensure the long-term viability of energy infrastructure.
The study also highlights the importance of nature-based solutions to address these challenges. By integrating sustainable practices into land use planning, the energy sector can contribute to the conservation of ecosystems and biodiversity, aligning with the Sustainable Development Goals for 2030. “It is crucial to take into account nature-based solutions that are characterized as sustainable,” emphasizes Tilahun. This approach not only benefits the environment but also enhances the resilience of energy systems, ensuring a stable supply of resources for future generations.
As the Awash River Basin continues to evolve, the insights provided by this research will be invaluable for policymakers, energy companies, and environmentalists. By understanding the complex interplay between land use, population dynamics, and environmental change, stakeholders can make informed decisions that balance economic development with ecological sustainability. The study published in *Scientific Reports* serves as a call to action, urging the adoption of innovative solutions to address the challenges of a changing landscape.