In the heart of the Greater Caucasus region, a shifting climate is redrawing the map of atmospheric precipitation, with profound implications for agriculture and energy sectors. A recent study, led by Jamal Huseynov of the National Aviation Academy and Azerbaijan Airlines JSC, delves into the contemporary spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation in the southern and southeastern parts of this region, offering critical insights for stakeholders.
The research, published in the journal “Bulletin of V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University. Series Geology. Geography. Ecology,” reveals a stark trend: precipitation is on the decline, barring the months of January, March, and May. This reduction is particularly felt during the spring and summer months, coinciding with the critical vegetation period for agricultural crops. “The decrease in precipitation during these months is especially detrimental to the development of agricultural crops,” Huseynov notes, highlighting the commercial impact on the region’s farming communities.
The study utilized data from hydrometeorological stations across the region, collected over a period spanning from 1961 to 2023. By employing modern mathematical-statistical, physical, cartographic methods, and GIS technology, the research team identified long-term trends and patterns in precipitation distribution. They found that the average long-term amount of atmospheric precipitation in the region is 816 mm, with 56% of this total occurring during the warm period and 44% during the cold period.
The findings also indicate that precipitation amounts decrease from higher elevations to lowlands and from the northwest to the southeast. Moreover, the region predominantly experiences precipitation events with a recurrence of 120 mm or higher. “The results of the research can be utilized for the establishment of new agricultural fields, the compilation of maps, economic assessments, and the development of mitigation measures against climate change,” Huseynov explains, pointing to the practical applications of the study.
For the energy sector, these findings are equally significant. Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation is crucial for hydropower generation, which relies heavily on consistent water flow. As climate change continues to alter precipitation patterns, energy providers must adapt their strategies to ensure a stable power supply. The research also underscores the importance of developing mitigation measures to combat the effects of climate change, which can have far-reaching consequences for both the environment and the economy.
As the region grapples with the realities of a changing climate, this study serves as a vital resource for policymakers, farmers, and energy providers alike. By shedding light on the intricate dynamics of precipitation distribution, it paves the way for more informed decision-making and strategic planning. In a world where climate change is reshaping our landscapes and livelihoods, such insights are invaluable.