In the vast, sun-scorched expanse of the Sahel, a monumental effort to combat land degradation is underway. The African Great Green Wall (GGW) initiative, a pan-African project aimed at restoring 100 million hectares of degraded land by 2030, has been making headlines for its ambitious goals. However, a recent study published in *Scientific Reports* (translated to English as *Scientific Reports*), led by Yubo Zhi from the Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, reveals a sobering truth: land degradation is outpacing restoration in the GGW.
The study, which provides a comprehensive assessment of land productivity dynamics (LPD) within the GGW from 2013 to 2022, paints a mixed picture. While 3.44% of the area has seen improvements in land productivity, a concerning 4.93% has experienced declines. This suggests that the GGW initiative’s effectiveness has not met expectations, highlighting the need for more targeted interventions.
“Our findings demonstrate that while climate change remains a major challenge, human-driven land management strategies can play a pivotal role in restoring degraded land,” said Yubo Zhi, the lead author of the study. The research identifies land cover change (LCC) as the largest contributor to increases in LPD, accounting for 30.97% of the positive changes. However, climate change (CLI) is the primary driver of declining land productivity, contributing to 43.51% of the negative trends.
The study also sheds light on the human-driven factors influencing LPD. Forest loss, cropland abandonment, and deforestation for cultivation are the primary causes of declining land productivity. Conversely, forest expansion and the reclamation of bare land for agriculture are the main contributors to increasing land productivity.
For the energy sector, these findings have significant implications. Land degradation can exacerbate desertification, leading to reduced agricultural productivity and increased pressure on natural resources. This, in turn, can impact the availability of biomass for energy production and increase the vulnerability of communities to climate change.
The study underscores the need for more coordinated, science-based strategies to achieve the GGW’s full potential by 2030. By integrating climate adaptation, land restoration policies, and sustainable land-use practices, the GGW can enhance both ecological resilience and community livelihoods across the Sahel.
As the world grapples with the escalating impacts of climate change, the insights from this research could shape future developments in land management and restoration efforts. The study serves as a stark reminder that while the challenges are immense, human-driven interventions can make a significant difference in the fight against land degradation.
In the words of Yubo Zhi, “The GGW initiative requires more coordinated, science-based strategies to achieve its full potential by 2030. By integrating climate adaptation, land restoration policies, and sustainable land-use practices, the GGW can enhance both ecological resilience and community livelihoods across the Sahel.” This research not only highlights the urgent need for action but also offers a roadmap for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and securing a more sustainable future for the Sahel and beyond.