At the 2025 Xinjiang International Agricultural Machinery Expo in Urumqi, industry leaders gathered to discuss the evolving landscape of China’s agricultural machinery market. With mechanization rates for key crops like wheat, corn, rice, and soybeans reaching near-saturation levels, the market is shifting from a focus on volume to a new phase centered on upgrading existing fleets with advanced technology.
Senior executives from global agricultural machinery manufacturer Case New Holland (CNH) highlighted that the high mechanization rates—97.6% for wheat, 90.6% for corn, 86.9% for rice, and 87.9% for soybeans—indicate a mature market ready for qualitative improvements. Li Kang, manager for CNH China and Mongolia, noted that this transition represents a shift from quantitative expansion to qualitative enhancement, emphasizing the replacement of older equipment with high-end, large-scale, high-efficiency, and intelligent machinery.
This shift is already evident in the tractor and combine harvester markets. While overall tractor sales have declined year-to-date compared to last year, the segment above 200 horsepower has seen growth. Similarly, combine harvesters with feeding capacities exceeding 10 kilograms per second have also achieved growth. Li Kang pointed out that CNH holds a competitive advantage in these high-performance product lines and will continue to focus on these areas, tailoring designs to better meet the needs of Chinese agriculture.
Government policies are playing a crucial role in driving this transition. In April 2024, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the Ministry of Finance issued guidelines directing subsidy support toward high-end products such as intelligent tractors, smart combine harvesters, high-performance planters, and intelligent navigation terminals. The policy also mandates a gradual reduction in subsidies for traditional, energy-intensive, low-efficiency, and technologically obsolete machinery.
Luca Mainardi, president of CNH Asia-Pacific, noted that these policy changes have positively impacted the company, aligning with the government’s preference for high-efficiency, large-scale equipment. A survey by the China Agricultural Machinery Distribution Association in 2024 estimated the annual value of agricultural machinery updated and replaced nationwide at around 300 billion yuan ($42.14 billion). The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs announced in February that China has expanded the scope of subsidies for replacing old and worn-out agricultural machinery and raised subsidy levels.
Mainardi emphasized the importance of increasing localization to meet domestic demand and enhance competitiveness, leveraging China’s supply chain advantages to export CNH products made in China. This strategic focus on high-end, efficient machinery is set to drive the next phase of growth in China’s agricultural machinery market, ensuring that the industry continues to evolve and adapt to the changing needs of modern agriculture.