In the face of climate change, farmers and agricultural stakeholders are grappling with an uncertain future. A recent study published in the journal *Agriculture* offers a promising approach to navigate these challenges, using mathematical modelling to optimise long-range agricultural land use. The research, led by Karin Schiller from Bond Business School at Bond University, Australia, presents a spatio-temporal agricultural land use sequencer (STALS) model that could reshape how we plan and manage agricultural landscapes under changing climates.
The study focuses on the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area in Australia, a region that, like many others, is experiencing reduced water availability and increased temperatures. The STALS model aims to identify feasible, climate-aware annual crop land uses over the long term, balancing economic benefits and water usage. “Our approach is designed to help stakeholders make informed decisions about land use transitions and production system changes,” Schiller explains.
The model reveals two potential pathways for land use under climate change. One pathway suggests a concentrated crop mix, while the other advocates for a more diverse approach. However, both scenarios point towards a shift towards higher-value crops, such as horticultural species, to maximise regional economic benefit with minimal water usage. This finding has significant implications for the agriculture sector, as it indicates that adapting to climate change could not only mitigate risks but also unlock new economic opportunities.
The research highlights the need for a transformation in land use to maintain regional agricultural economic benefits under reduced water availability and increased temperature. “The key takeaway is that proactive planning and strategic decision-making can help the agriculture sector adapt to climate change and thrive in the long run,” Schiller notes.
The STALS model is a powerful tool for decision support, offering a data-driven approach to land use planning. By integrating climate predictions and economic considerations, it provides a comprehensive framework for optimising agricultural land use. This research could pave the way for similar models to be developed and applied in other regions, helping to build more resilient and profitable agricultural systems worldwide.
As the agriculture sector continues to grapple with the impacts of climate change, innovative solutions like the STALS model will be crucial in shaping a sustainable and prosperous future. The study, led by Karin Schiller from Bond Business School at Bond University, Australia, and published in *Agriculture*, offers valuable insights and a practical tool for stakeholders to navigate the complexities of long-range agricultural land use planning under climate uncertainty.