In the heart of Northwest China, the Wensu Oasis is a vital hub of agricultural production and ecological stability. However, a recent study published in *Agronomy* reveals that the region’s land use changes have significant implications for carbon emissions and ecosystem services, with potential impacts on the agriculture sector.
The research, led by Yiqi Zhao from the State Key Laboratory of Water Engineering Ecology and Environment in Arid Area at Xi’an University of Technology, examines the spatiotemporal interactions between land use/cover change (LUCC), carbon emissions, and ecosystem service value (ESV) from 1990 to 2020. The findings highlight a stark reality: as cultivated land, construction land, and unused land expanded, grasslands, forests, and water bodies declined, with the most pronounced changes occurring between 2000 and 2010.
“Our study indicates that the carbon emission intensity in the Wensu Oasis increased steadily, primarily driven by the expansion of construction land,” Zhao explains. “Meanwhile, the total ecosystem service value declined by 46.37%, with significant contributions from the loss of water bodies and grasslands.”
The research employed a combination of multi-period remote sensing data, the carbon emission coefficient method, modified equivalent factor method, spatial autocorrelation analysis, the coupling coordination degree model, and the PLUS model. These tools quantified LUCC patterns, carbon emission intensity, ESV, and their coupling relationships.
One of the most striking findings is the significant negative spatial correlation between carbon emission intensity and ESV. This means that as carbon emissions increase, the value of ecosystem services decreases, creating a challenging trade-off for agricultural and ecological management.
“Carbon emission intensity and ESV exhibited a significant negative spatial correlation, and the coupling coordination degree remained low, following a ‘high in the north, low in the south’ distribution,” Zhao notes.
The study also predicts future trajectories under four development scenarios. The results suggest that the negative correlation and low coordination will persist, with only the ecological protection scenario (EPS) showing potential to enhance both carbon sequestration and ESV.
For the agriculture sector, these findings underscore the importance of sustainable land use practices. The study recommends spatially differentiated land use regulation and prioritizing EPS measures, including glacier and wetland conservation, adoption of water-saving irrigation technologies, development of agroforestry systems, and renewable energy utilization on unused land.
“This research provides new insights into oasis sustainability and offers a scientific basis for balancing agricultural production with ecological protection in the oasis of the arid region,” Zhao concludes.
The implications of this study extend beyond the Wensu Oasis, offering valuable lessons for other arid regions facing similar challenges. By explicitly linking LUCC-driven carbon–ESV interactions with scenario-based prediction and evaluation, the research provides a roadmap for achieving China’s dual-carbon strategy and the Sustainable Development Goals.
As the agriculture sector continues to evolve, the need for sustainable practices becomes increasingly urgent. This study serves as a timely reminder of the delicate balance between agricultural productivity and ecological preservation, and the critical role that technology and innovation play in achieving this balance.