In the heart of Turkey’s apricot belt, a groundbreaking study is reshaping the future of organic farming, with significant implications for the global agriculture sector. Researchers, led by Ayca Nur Sahin Demirel, have turned to machine learning to unravel the complexities of organic apricot production, offering a roadmap for sustainable growth in one of the world’s most prolific apricot-producing regions.
The study, published in *Ciência Rural*, focuses on Iğdır province, a key player in Turkey’s apricot industry. Despite its prominence, Iğdır has yet to make a mark in the organic apricot market. The research team set out to understand why, conducting a survey of 235 apricot producers to assess their knowledge of organic farming practices.
Their findings revealed a stark contrast between awareness and understanding. While 62.13% of producers claimed knowledge of organic farming, only 29.36% could accurately define organic production. This knowledge gap, particularly among younger farmers, raises concerns about the future of the labor force and the region’s potential in the organic market.
To delve deeper, the researchers employed the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) Machine Learning algorithm. This powerful tool analyzed the influence of demographic variables on organic knowledge levels, achieving an impressive 77% accuracy. “The XGBoost model allowed us to identify key determinants such as age, educational level, marital status, agricultural experience, and knowledge of production techniques,” explained Demirel. “This level of insight is crucial for developing targeted education programs and policies.”
The study also highlighted the importance of information sources. Using a Best/Worst analysis, the team identified the Provincial/District Directorate of Agriculture as the most influential source of information. In contrast, books and associations were the least utilized, suggesting a need for more accessible and engaging educational materials.
The commercial implications of this research are substantial. As consumer demand for organic products continues to grow, Iğdır’s apricot industry stands to gain significantly from a shift towards organic production. However, this transition requires targeted education programs, family-based agricultural collaborations, and government incentives.
Demirel emphasized the potential impact of these findings: “By addressing the knowledge gap and leveraging key information sources, we can significantly improve organic apricot production in Iğdır. This not only benefits the local economy but also contributes to sustainable farming practices on a global scale.”
As the agriculture sector grapples with the challenges of sustainability and labor shortages, this research offers a data-driven approach to fostering growth and innovation. By harnessing the power of machine learning and targeted education, the future of organic apricot production in Iğdır—and beyond—looks promising.