In the heart of Iran’s Karat Plain, a silent crisis has been unfolding—one that threatens the very ground beneath the feet of farmers and the productivity of their lands. A recent study published in ‘علوم زمین خوارزمی’ has shed light on this issue, offering both a warning and a potential path forward for the agriculture sector.
The research, led by Samira Bakhtiari of Damghan University, investigates the phenomenon of land subsidence—a gradual settling or sudden sinking of the Earth’s surface—using a combination of numerical modeling and satellite remote sensing techniques. The team developed a groundwater flow model using MODFLOW, a widely used software for simulating groundwater conditions and subsidence.
“Our model showed that the aquifer has the highest sensitivity to surface water recharge and hydraulic conductivity,” Bakhtiari explained. This finding is crucial, as it points to key areas where management practices could potentially mitigate further subsidence.
The study revealed a subsidence zone covering 20 square kilometers, with a maximum subsidence rate of 48 mm per year. Over the past two decades, the groundwater level has dropped by about 35 meters, an average of 175 cm per year. The southern parts of the watershed, where the largest number of agricultural wells are located, are the most prone to land subsidence.
The commercial impacts for the agriculture sector are significant. Land subsidence can damage infrastructure, including irrigation systems and roads, leading to increased maintenance costs. Moreover, it can reduce the productivity of farmland, as the settling ground can disrupt planting and harvesting activities.
The study’s findings could shape future developments in the field by highlighting the importance of integrated water resource management. By understanding the sensitivity of the aquifer to various factors, policymakers and farmers can make informed decisions about water usage and conservation strategies.
Bakhtiari’s research also demonstrated the effectiveness of the Interbed Package in simulating land subsidence, providing a valuable tool for future studies. As the agriculture sector continues to grapple with the challenges posed by land subsidence, this research offers a glimmer of hope—a path towards more sustainable and informed water management practices.
In the words of Bakhtiari, “This study is a step towards understanding and mitigating the impacts of land subsidence on agriculture. It’s a call to action for all stakeholders to work together towards a more sustainable future.”