In the heart of Indonesia, the buffer zone of the Bukit Rimbang Bukit Baling Wildlife Reserve (BRBB WR) is undergoing rapid transformation, driven by demographic and economic pressures. A recent study, published in the *JGEET: Journal of Geoscience, Engineering, Environment and Technology*, sheds light on these changes and their potential impacts on the region’s ecosystem and agriculture sector. Led by Indra Suandy from the Department of Regional and Rural Planning at Riau University, the research employs a business-as-usual (BAU) simulation model to project future land-use changes in the absence of policy interventions.
The study reveals alarming trends. Primary forests and shrublands, which covered approximately 1.59% and 0.62% of the study area in 2019, respectively, are projected to disappear before 2028. Secondary forests and bare lands, occupying 18.65% and 3.83% of the area, respectively, are also expected to continue declining until 2035. “Without intervention, these ecosystems will face severe degradation,” Suandy warns. Conversely, plantations, agricultural land, and settlements have expanded significantly, exacerbating pressure on the ecosystem.
The findings underscore the urgent need for conservation-based policies to curb deforestation and land conversion. “Promoting sustainable resource management is crucial to maintaining the ecological and socioeconomic balance in the BRBB WR buffer zone,” Suandy emphasizes. The study’s model validation using the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) yielded a value of 0.48%, demonstrating high accuracy in predicting land-use changes.
For the agriculture sector, these projections present both challenges and opportunities. While the expansion of plantations and agricultural land may initially boost productivity, the long-term impacts of deforestation and ecosystem degradation could lead to reduced yields and increased vulnerability to climate change. “Sustainable practices are not just an environmental imperative but also a business necessity,” Suandy notes.
This research could shape future developments in the field by highlighting the importance of integrating ecological and socioeconomic considerations into land-use planning. By adopting a dynamic system modeling approach, policymakers and stakeholders can better understand the complex interplay between demographic, economic, and environmental factors. This holistic perspective is essential for designing effective conservation strategies and promoting sustainable agriculture practices.
As the world grapples with the impacts of climate change and biodiversity loss, studies like this one serve as a timely reminder of the need for proactive and integrated approaches to land management. By embracing innovation and collaboration, we can strive towards a more sustainable and resilient future for both people and the planet.