Global oilseed markets have been experiencing a period of weakening prices, a trend that began toward the end of 2025 and continued into early 2026. This shift can be attributed to a combination of factors, including improving supply prospects in South America, particularly in Brazil, and concerns about weak demand.
The International Grains Council (IGC) reported that global soybean export quotations registered significant declines in the period since Nov. 20, 2025. This was driven by sizeable falls at Southern Hemisphere origins and a sharp retreat in Chicago soybean spot futures, as bearish fundamentals weighed on sentiment. While there were some hopes buoyed by sales to China, background worries about future international demand pressured the market throughout the period. Cumulative commitments were running around 30% behind year over year, chiefly on reduced sales to Chinese processors.
The mostly beneficial weather in Brazil, where early harvesting commenced in December, added to the negative tone in the market. Weakness in markets for soya derivatives also contributed to the overall decline. Despite a strengthening in basis levels, US Gulf export values still fell by 6% over the period, to $425 per tonne fob. Brazilian spot values declined by around 10% since mid-November to $405 per tonne fob, driven by expectations of a record harvest and easing fob premiums as the market transitioned to new-crop pricing. In Argentina, up-river values also fell by about 10%, to $400 per tonne fob.
In Canada, ICE canola futures declined by 3% over the same period, amid prospects for ample supplies, while weakness in soybeans added to the negative tone. Physical quotations at Vancouver fell by $10, to $479 per tonne fob, while Australian export offers from Kwinana dropped by $20, to $520 per tonne fob.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported a fall in overall global vegetable oil prices in December 2025, compared with November, to a six-month low. This decline reflected lower world prices of soy, rapeseed, and sunflower oils, which more than offset higher palm oil quotations. The FAO noted that global soy oil prices declined on ample export supplies from the Americas, while larger rapeseed outputs in Australia and Canada exerted downward pressure on rapeseed markets.
For sunflower oil, sluggish global import demand due to weakening price competitiveness contributed to price contractions for the second consecutive month in December. International palm oil prices edged up slightly, largely underpinned by prospective seasonal production slowdowns in Southeast Asia, outweighing the impact of higher-than-expected outputs and inventories in Malaysia in late 2025. For 2025, the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index was 17% higher year on year, marking a three-year high amid tight global supplies.
The USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) raised its forecast for global soybean production in the 2025-26 marketing year by 3.1 million tonnes, to 425.7 million tonnes, driven by higher output in Brazil and the United States, despite lower production in China. Brazil’s soybean crop was revised up by 3 million tonnes, to 178 million tonnes, which, if realized, would represent a record. The USDA cited increased harvested area and a 1% rise in yields to 3.63 tonnes per hectare. December rainfall was favorable for crop development in most of the country, with good conditions across all major Brazilian soybean-producing states.
Implications for Agritech and Investors
The weakening of global oilseed markets presents a mixed bag of opportunities and challenges for agritech and investors. On one hand, lower prices can make oilseeds more affordable for consumers and livestock producers, potentially increasing demand. This could be a boon for agritech companies that focus on improving crop yields and efficiency, as farmers may look to these technologies to maintain profitability in a lower-price environment.
However, the decline in prices also signals potential risks. Farmers may face financial strain if prices remain low, which could impact their ability to invest in new technologies. This could slow down the adoption of agritech solutions, at least in the short term. Investors in agritech may need to carefully assess the market conditions and the financial health of the farmers they aim to serve.
Moreover, the focus on South America, particularly Brazil, as a key player in the global oilseed market highlights the importance of regional dynamics. Agritech companies and investors should pay close attention to developments in these regions, as they can significantly influence global market trends. Technologies that can help farmers in these regions improve yields and manage